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DHS FEMA NFIP Services - eWaterwark Article
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Hurricane Season
Lynd Morris, NFIP Bureau and Statistical Agent
The 2005 hurricane season was a record breaker, according to Phil Klotzbach and William Gray of the internationally
respected Tropical Meteorology Project (TMP) at Colorado State University in Boulder. This year's hurricane season may
be just as severe.
2005: A Hurricane Season to Remember
The TMP publishes forecasts for each year's hurricane season (June 1 through November 30 in the Atlantic) as well as
analyses of previous hurricane seasons. According to an analysis available on the TMP website, a total of 26 named
storms, including 14 hurricanes, 7 of which were major, formed during the record-breaking 2005 hurricane season. This is
the most named storms in a single season, breaking the previous record of 21 named storms set in 1933. It is also the most
hurricanes in a single season, breaking the record of 12 hurricanes set in 1969. The seven major hurricanes that formed in
2005 tie the single-season record for intense hurricanes set in 1950. Five of these major hurricanes reached a status of
Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale (see below), and three of these reached a Category 5 status. This is the most
Category 5 hurricanes recorded in a single season, breaking the old record of two Category 5 hurricanes set in 1960 and 1961.
| Category |
Maimum Sustained Wind
Speed (Miles per hour) |
Storm Surge (feet) |
| 1 |
74-95 |
3-5 |
| 2 |
96-110 |
6-8 |
| 3 |
111-130 |
9-12 |
| 4 |
131-155 |
13-18 |
| 5 |
156+ |
19+ |
Although large numbers of named storms formed in 2005, only seven of these made landfall in the United States--Arlene, Cindy,
Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Tammy, and Wilma. This is one fewer hurricane making landfall than during 2004.
However, the 2005 hurricane season was the most damaging in history for the United States, largely due to Hurricane Katrina.
Insured damage estimates for the 2005 season are nearly $70 billion, shattering the old records set in 1992 and 2004, which
(when adjusted for inflation) each caused approximately $25 billion in insured damage.
The 2006 Hurricane Forecast
The TMP team has predicted that this year's hurricane season will end as active as last year's. "Information obtained
through May 2006 continues to indicate that the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season will be much more active than the average
1950-2000 season," states the team's May 31 projections. "We estimate that 2006 will have about 9 hurricanes (average
is 5.9), 17 named storms (average is 9.6), 85 named storm days (average is 49.1), 45 hurricane days (average is 24.5),
5 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 13 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0).
What Will They Be Named and Where Will They Strike?
Since 1953, the National Weather Service (NWS) has designated names for the tropical cyclones that are generated in the
Atlantic Basin. Now, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (a branch of the NWS) maintains six lists of
alternating male and female names that are rotated annually, only replacing the names of storms that are so damaging that
their names are retired and become ineligible for reuse for at least 10 years. Pacific tropical cyclones are called
typhoons and have their own lists of names.
2006 Atlantic Hurricane Names
Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sandy
Tony
Valerie
William |
There is no certainty where a hurricane will strike. However, the United States Landfalling Hurricane
Project has a website with an
interactive map
that shows landfall probabilities for 2006 hurricanes.
Implications for NFIP Stakeholders
After last year's devastating hurricane season, the public is sensitized to the wind and water hazards of tropical cyclones.
Those who have not already purchased flood insurance coverage in response to last year's storms will be more receptive this
year to the need for financial protection from flood losses due to hurricanes. Because of the NFIP's 30-day waiting period
before flood insurance becomes effective, and the fact that hurricane season started on June 1, now is the time to urge
residents of communities vulnerable to hurricanes to purchase coverage.
The public may also be more receptive to mitigation projects that will protect their communities from hurricane-related
losses. One strategy for using the heightened sensitivity to hazard protection is to include in your public awareness
campaign materials high-impact data about last year's storms and damage estimates.
Most importantly, if your office is in an area that is vulnerable to hurricanes or typhoons (or their remnants)--and this
includes most of the Southern and Eastern United States, the Pacific Coast States, Hawaii, and the U.S. Territories--be sure
to have a disaster plan in place that will allow you to continue working if your community is hit by disaster. Companies that
lose data during a flood or do not have access to their records after the water recedes are much less likely to recover and
stay in business. And, when your business is to help others to recover from flood losses, it is even more important that you
draw up a disaster plan and practice putting it into action.
FEMA and several other organizations have produced downloadable, step-by-step guidance for developing an emergency response
plan for businesses.
Hurricanes may be a fact of life for many who make their homes near the coasts or in nearby states that regularly receive
the remnants of hurricane precipitation. But being prepared for disaster can lessen its impact. Putting protection into place
now, while the sun is still shining, will provide more peace of mind during and after a hurricane, when you will need it most.
Lynd Morris has worked with the NFIP's Bureau and Statistical Agent since 1983. She has been Watermark's primary writer and
production coordinator since 1998.
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| Last Modified:
Friday, 21 January 2011 |
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